Global poverty: A first estimation of its uncertainty

The dollar-a-day method, applied in monitoring the UN’s development goals against poverty, provides no confidence interval for official figures of global poverty reduction, a practice that does not allow statistical testing. Using Monte Carlo micro-simulations we construct intervals reflect error introduced by process determining International Poverty Line, as well uncertainty involved Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. These estimates identify reduction 5.19% between 1990 and 2015 at 95% level, stark contrast with remarkable 73% reported World Bank statistics published on September 18, 2018. At same time, MDG1 obtains 80% level. cost-of-basic-needs method paints more promising picture identifying 35.71% while level which was half stands 46%. We conclude derivation international line introduces high levels estimates.